Complex Event Analysis - Report 2020/03/29

Key Focus

  • It purchased $40 billion of mortgages Friday,
    $10 billion less than it planned to buy, and it plans to do another $40 billion Monday but could end up doing less.
    "We are expecting the Fed to modulate their purchases," Frantantoni said.
    But Habib said the Fed needs to go further than just modulate.
    "This is a collapse of the system," Habib said
  • There was also fear that borrowers wouldn't be able to pay.
    In the week of March 16, the Fed bought $68 billion of mortgages. But the market still saw massive selling, prompting the Fed to come in with an additional $183 billion of purchases last week
  • No momentum supporting factor found

    Challenge supporting factors

  • (fed, mba)
  • (fed, mortgage)
  • (fed, sledgehammer)
  • (fed, micheal_frantantoni)
  • (fed, four-week)
  • (economist, fed)
  • Work-in-progress supporting factors

  • (fed, mortgages)
  • (fed, mortgage)
  • (fed, modulate)
  • (fed, habib)
  • (fed, outcry)
  • (fed, frantantoni)
  • Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT


    Time PeriodChallengeMomentumWIP
    Report 2020/03/2947.62 0.00 52.38

    High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

    High Level Abstraction (HLA)Report 2020/03/29
    (1) (fed,mortgages)100.00
    (2) (fed,mortgage)85.19
    (3) (fed,mba)62.96
    (4) (fed,modulate)37.04
    (5) (fed,habib)25.93
    (6) (fed,sledgehammer)22.22
    (7) (fed,outcry)18.52
    (8) (fed,micheal_frantantoni)14.81
    (9) (fed,frantantoni)11.11
    (10) (fed,four-week)7.41
    (11) (economist,fed)3.70

    Complex Event Analysis - REPORT 2020/03/29

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    Supporting narratives:

    • challenge (Read more)
      • The combined $250 billion in mortgage purchases by the Fed over two weeks was $84 billion more than the Fed had bought over any four-week period during the financial crisis in 2009.
        Ironically, the MBA had urged the Fed to come in strongly to help the mortgage market
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (fed,four-week)
        • (fed,mortgage)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • The combined $250 billion in mortgage purchases by the Fed over two weeks was $84 billion more than the Fed had bought over any four-week period during the financial crisis in 2009.
        Ironically, the MBA had urged the Fed to come in strongly to help the mortgage market.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (fed,mba)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • "We understand that when the Fed came into the market, they couldn't come in surgically. They didn't have a scalpel. They only have a sledgehammer," MBA chief economist Micheal Frantantoni told CNBC.
        The New York Fed appears to have adjusted its purchases in response to the industry outcry
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (fed,sledgehammer)
        • (fed,micheal_frantantoni)
        • (economist,fed)
        • (fed,mba)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • There was also fear that borrowers wouldn't be able to pay.
        In the week of March 16, the Fed bought $68 billion of mortgages. But the market still saw massive selling, prompting the Fed to come in with an additional $183 billion of purchases last week
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (fed,mortgages)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • It purchased $40 billion of mortgages Friday,
        $10 billion less than it planned to buy, and it plans to do another $40 billion Monday but could end up doing less.
        "We are expecting the Fed to modulate their purchases," Frantantoni said.
        But Habib said the Fed needs to go further than just modulate.
        "This is a collapse of the system," Habib said
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (fed,mortgages)
        • (fed,frantantoni)
        • (fed,modulate)
        • (fed,habib)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • For a significant number of lenders, many of which are well-capitalized, these margin calls are eroding their working capital and threatening their ability to continue to operate."
        Some lenders, the letter said, may not be able to meet their margin calls in a day or two.
        The Fed came into the mortgage market forcefully two weeks ago when rates began to rise because a large array of investors were selling mortgage securities to raise cash, in part, to offset big losses in the stock market
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (fed,mortgage)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • They only have a sledgehammer," MBA chief economist Micheal Frantantoni told CNBC.
        The New York Fed appears to have adjusted its purchases in response to the industry outcry.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (fed,outcry)

    Target rule match count: 11.0 Challenge: 0.24 Momentum: 0.00 WIP: 0.26